Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia
The essential question this paper seeks to answer is whether the business cycle co-movement in East Asia are fostered by internal bilateral trade within the region, specifically, intra-industry trade or by external forces like the influence of the world’s largest economy, namely, the United States....
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sg-smu-ink.soe_research-37172024-01-18T09:06:45Z Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia SNG, Hui-Ying. DOU, Liyu RANA, Pradumna Bickram. The essential question this paper seeks to answer is whether the business cycle co-movement in East Asia are fostered by internal bilateral trade within the region, specifically, intra-industry trade or by external forces like the influence of the world’s largest economy, namely, the United States. This paper examines the extent and robustness of the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for nine East Asian countries in the period 1965–2008. Unlike previous studies which assume away the region’s concurrent connection with the rest of the world, in our regressions we control for both the US effect and the exchange rate co-movement in the region. We find that the coefficient estimates for intra-industry trade intensity remain robust and significant even after controlling for the US effect and the exchange rate co-movement. The findings confirm that regional intra-industry trade fosters business cycle correlations among countries in East Asia. 2016-10-01T07:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2718 info:doi/10.1142/S0217590818400064 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/3717/viewcontent/sng_et_al_2016_catalyst_of_business_cycle_synchronization_in_east_asia__1_.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Research Collection School Of Economics eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Business cycle co-movement trade integration inter-industry trade intra-industry trade exchange rate co-movement East Asia Economics |
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Business cycle co-movement trade integration inter-industry trade intra-industry trade exchange rate co-movement East Asia Economics SNG, Hui-Ying. DOU, Liyu RANA, Pradumna Bickram. Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia |
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The essential question this paper seeks to answer is whether the business cycle co-movement in East Asia are fostered by internal bilateral trade within the region, specifically, intra-industry trade or by external forces like the influence of the world’s largest economy, namely, the United States. This paper examines the extent and robustness of the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for nine East Asian countries in the period 1965–2008. Unlike previous studies which assume away the region’s concurrent connection with the rest of the world, in our regressions we control for both the US effect and the exchange rate co-movement in the region. We find that the coefficient estimates for intra-industry trade intensity remain robust and significant even after controlling for the US effect and the exchange rate co-movement. The findings confirm that regional intra-industry trade fosters business cycle correlations among countries in East Asia. |
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text |
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SNG, Hui-Ying. DOU, Liyu RANA, Pradumna Bickram. |
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SNG, Hui-Ying. DOU, Liyu RANA, Pradumna Bickram. |
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SNG, Hui-Ying. |
title |
Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia |
title_short |
Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia |
title_full |
Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia |
title_fullStr |
Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Catalyst of business cycle synchronization in East Asia |
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catalyst of business cycle synchronization in east asia |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
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2016 |
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https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2718 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/3717/viewcontent/sng_et_al_2016_catalyst_of_business_cycle_synchronization_in_east_asia__1_.pdf |
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