Sanctions for nuclear inhibition: Comparing sanctions conditions between Iran and North Korea

• Main Authors: KIM, Inwook, LEE, Jung-Chul
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2019
• Subjects: Economic sanction; nuclear proliferation; North Korea; Iran; US foreign policy; Asian Studies; Political Economy; Political Science
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/2817; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soss_research/article/4074/viewcontent/KIM_LEE_Sanctions_for_Nuclear_Inhibition__2019_.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

Whendo sanctions succeed in nuclear inhibition? Is there a generalizable frameworkto estimate sanction effectiveness against nuclear aspirants? Instead ofrelying on partial equilibrium analysis, we conceptualize sanctions as threesequential phases—imposition of economic pain, conversation to politicalpressure, and creation (or failure thereof) of zone of possible agreement(ZOPA). The effectiveness of each phase is subject to phase-specific contextualvariables, an aggregation of which helps measure individual sanction’s effectiveness,conduct cross-case comparison, and estimate one’s replicability in other cases.To illustrate its analytical utility, we analyze the divergent sanctionoutcomes between Iran in 2012-2015 and North Korea 2013-2017. Iran waseconomically more vulnerable, politically less resilient, and its bargainingposition closer to a ZOPA than North Korea was. Our analysis questions theutility of economic sanction in North Korea and helps expanding the discussionaway from the policy obsession with the role of China. Theoretically, it rectifiesan imbalance against qualitative and holistic approach in the sanctionliterature, and contributes to discussions about nuclear inhibitionstrategies.