Continuity, history, and identity: Why Bongbong Marcos won the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election

• Main Authors: DULAY, Dean C., HICKEN, Allen, MENON, Anil, HOLMES, Ronald
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2023
• Subjects: 2022 Philippine elections; authoritarianism; democratization; ethnic voting; Ferdinand Marcos; historical memory; Philippines; Rodrigo Duterte; Asian Studies; Political History; Political Science
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/3744; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soss_research/article/5002/viewcontent/BBM_PacificAffairs_sv.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

In May of 2022, Bongbong Marcos won a commanding 59 percent of the vote to become president of the Philippines. His victory was, on some level, shocking to scholars and analysts of Philippine politics. As a result, a plethora of different theories have been proposed, in an attempt to explain why Marcos won. In this paper, we use nationally representative survey data to explore which factors predict (and do not predict) voting intention for Marcos. We find that, a) support for former President Rodrigo Duterte, b) positive perceptions of the late President Ferdinand Marcos and martial law, and c) ethnic (linguistic) identity are strong predictors of voting for Bongbong Marcos. On the other hand, age, education, and income are not. Consequently, theories based on continuity, coalition, history, and identity provide the most leverage on the question of why Bongbong Marcos won the election.