Your Past is my Present: Does evoking historical analogies change public opinion regarding foreign policy?

• المؤلفون الرئيسيون: MENON, Anil, ABRAMSON, Yehonathan, DULAY, Dean C., JONES, Pauline
• التنسيق: text
• اللغة: English
• منشور في: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2025
• الموضوعات: Defense and Security Studies; International Relations; Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/4136; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soss_research/article/5395/viewcontent/YourPast_MyPresent_sv.pdf

Historical analogies are often employed as tools of public persuasion on security and foreign policies. While existing research points to the potential power of historical analogies on domestic audiences, it has not examined the effect of historical analogies on foreign publics. Using speeches by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after Russia’s February 2022 invasion, we investigate whether evoking salient events from the audience country’s past effectively increases popular support for aiding Ukraine. We conducted survey experiments simultaneously in four countries where Zelensky delivered speeches rich in historical analogies – United Kingdom (WWII), United States (Pearl Harbor and 9/11), Germany and Israel (Holocaust). Exposure to excerpts from Zelensky's speeches triggered distinctive emotional reactions in all countries consistent with the tailored content. Yet, only in Israel, where domestic assistance to Ukraine was perceived as insufficient, did exposure increase support for aiding Ukraine. Our findings suggest that the persuasive potential of historical analogies is limited.