Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018. In this paper, we experiment with several different models with belief function to forecast Thai telephone subscribers. This approach will provide an uncertainty about predicted values and yield a predictive belief function that quantities the uncertainty...

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Main Authors: Noppasit Chakpitak, Woraphon Yamaka, Songsak Sriboonchitta
Format: Book Series
Published: 2018
Online Access:https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85037842432&origin=inward
http://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/jspui/handle/6653943832/43874
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Institution: Chiang Mai University
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spelling th-cmuir.6653943832-438742018-01-24T04:14:35Z Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions Noppasit Chakpitak Woraphon Yamaka Songsak Sriboonchitta © Springer International Publishing AG 2018. In this paper, we experiment with several different models with belief function to forecast Thai telephone subscribers. This approach will provide an uncertainty about predicted values and yield a predictive belief function that quantities the uncertainty about the future data. The proposed forecasting models include linear AR, Kink AR, Threshold AR, and Markov Switching AR models. Next, we compare the out-of-sample performance using RMSE and MAE. The results suggest that the out-of-sample belief function based KAR forecast is more accurate than other models. Finally, we find that the growth rate of Thai telephone subscription in 2016 will fall around 6.08%. 2018-01-24T04:14:35Z 2018-01-24T04:14:35Z 2018-01-01 Book Series 1860949X 2-s2.0-85037842432 10.1007/978-3-319-70942-0_26 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85037842432&origin=inward http://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/jspui/handle/6653943832/43874
institution Chiang Mai University
building Chiang Mai University Library
country Thailand
collection CMU Intellectual Repository
description © Springer International Publishing AG 2018. In this paper, we experiment with several different models with belief function to forecast Thai telephone subscribers. This approach will provide an uncertainty about predicted values and yield a predictive belief function that quantities the uncertainty about the future data. The proposed forecasting models include linear AR, Kink AR, Threshold AR, and Markov Switching AR models. Next, we compare the out-of-sample performance using RMSE and MAE. The results suggest that the out-of-sample belief function based KAR forecast is more accurate than other models. Finally, we find that the growth rate of Thai telephone subscription in 2016 will fall around 6.08%.
format Book Series
author Noppasit Chakpitak
Woraphon Yamaka
Songsak Sriboonchitta
spellingShingle Noppasit Chakpitak
Woraphon Yamaka
Songsak Sriboonchitta
Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions
author_facet Noppasit Chakpitak
Woraphon Yamaka
Songsak Sriboonchitta
author_sort Noppasit Chakpitak
title Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions
title_short Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions
title_full Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions
title_fullStr Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions
title_full_unstemmed Comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions
title_sort comparing linear and nonlinear models in forecasting telephone subscriptions using likelihood based belief functions
publishDate 2018
url https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85037842432&origin=inward
http://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/jspui/handle/6653943832/43874
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