Rural-urban migration and fertility in Vietnam

• Main Author: Ha, Viet Hung, 1960-
• Other Authors: Buppha Sirirassamee
• Language: English
• Published: Mahidol University. Mahidol University Library and Knowledge Center 2023
• Subjects: Rural-urban migration > Vietnam; Fertility > Vietnam; Household
• Online Access: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/89065
• Institution: Mahidol University

Large scale rural-urban migration has coincided with an apparent slowdown in Vietnam's fertility decline. During the period 1999-2004, rural fertility continued to decline slowly while the urban fertility decline stalled. Some government officials are concerned that rural-urban migrants, particularly temporary migrants, may have been having out-of-plan births which are not allowed under the two-child population policy. This study examines the relationship between rural-urban migration and fertility in Vietnam. The analysis considers two questions: (i) Do rural-urban migrants have higher fertility than urban non-migrants? and (ii) Do temporary migrants have higher fertility than permanent migrants? The study used data obtained from the Vietnam Migration Survey conducted in 2004. The areas selected for the survey were geographically distributed throughout the country. The first analysis compared the number of children aged 0-4 between rural-urban migrants and urban non-migrants. The second analysis contrasted the number of specific-order births born after migration of temporary and permanent migrants. Both analyses applied logistic regression models with the same set of control variables. The first analysis finds significantly lower fertility among migrants compared to non-migrants. Migrants appear to delay their fertility partly because of adaptation to the urban norm of lower fertility, but mainly because of household registration effects. The second analysis indicates that temporary migrants have a significantly lower probability of having a first birth than permanent migrants. There is no difference in probability of having a second and third or higher order birth among migrants. Temporary migrants are no more likely than permanent migrants to exceed the government's target of two births. The results suggest that increased rural-urban migration is not slowing down the national fertility decline. Rural-urban migration is likely to have a negative relationship with fertility.