PEMILIHAN RENCANA KAPASITAS PEMBANGKITAN LISTRIK YANG PALING LAYAK PADA SUATU PROYEK PANAS BUMI BERDASARKAN ANALISIS TEKNIKAL DAN FINANSIAL

• Main Author: OKTAVIANI PURWANINGSIH (NIM: 22614012), FITRI
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/22191
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Determining geothermal capacity is one of uncertainty in the beginning of a <br /> <br /> geothermal project. Until recently there is no certain procedure to determine <br /> <br /> optimum capacity to be generated in a geothermal power project. Thus the actual <br /> <br /> power capacity generated in geothermal field can be different with its potential <br /> <br /> estimation. This research studies about determining the most feasible option from <br /> <br /> several possible options with varied generating capacity, development phases and <br /> <br /> production period that will be analyzed. <br /> <br /> The technical modeling using lumped parameter with p/Z falling method will be <br /> <br /> used to calculate maximum potential of the field, estimate production decline of <br /> <br /> the field and make-up wells requirement to maintain a certain generating capacity <br /> <br /> for a certain production period. The financial model would be done to calculate <br /> <br /> cost, financial indicators as IRR (Internal Rate of Return) and NPV (Net Profit <br /> <br /> Value). The sensitivity also is done to understand the influence of electricity price, <br /> <br /> amount of investment cost and interest rate of the project to its financial <br /> <br /> indicators. <br /> <br /> Calculation using the model showed that there is no feasible option with positive <br /> <br /> NPV for electricity price USD 8 cent/kWh. Further simulation with minimal IRR <br /> <br /> 12% showed that the required price to achieve the target is USD 8.79 to 19.63 <br /> <br /> cent/kWh. Simulation with varied investment cost showed units with bigger <br /> <br /> capacities (110 MW) will be feasible with investment cost 70 to 90% from <br /> <br /> previous estimated cost. Reducing the interest rate to 5 – 6% from previous 7% <br /> <br /> could also develop more feasible options. <br /> <br /> As suggestion, the government needs to be involved in reducing the total <br /> <br /> investment cost and interest rate for geothermal project development by activating <br /> <br /> their fund and adding more financial incentive in term of subsidy or reduction in <br /> <br /> interest rate.