RISK MANAGEMENT OF GAS PRODUCTION PHASE USING ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) METHOD AT SENORO GAS FIELD JOB PERTAMINA-MEDCO TOMORI SULAWESI

• Main Author: Ray Akbar Mutalibov 29115113, Mohammad
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/23123
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia nowadays still become crucial commodities that is <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> expected to contribute into nation income, even in the world’s current condition which are <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> relatively volatile. From 2014-2016 the world oil prices was declined due to crude oil oversupply <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> phenomenon, <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> resulting <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> in <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> decreased <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> revenue <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> for <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> most <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> oil <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> and <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> gas <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> company <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> in <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Indonesia. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> In <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> the <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> midst <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> of those declining world oil price, it is Government of Indonesia intention to start <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> reducing the dependencies towards crude oil. One of the most feasible alternative to be focused <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> on is gas industry. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> JOB Pertamina Medco-Tomori Sulawesi (JOB Tomori) is one of the subsidiaries under the hood <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> of Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) which currently focusing on gas production at Senoro block in <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Sulawesi Island. JOB Tomori has been entering production phase in the terms of gas production <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> since 2015 and successfully became the Indonesia’s fourth largest contributor of gas lifting in <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 2016. A risk management towards JOB Tomori gas production phase need to be created in order <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> to maintain the sustainability of the production and preventing any future major disadvantegous <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> events for the company. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Risk management is started by understanding the business situation comprehesively. External <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> and internal analysis has been conducted to obtain better understanding of JOB Tomori situation. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> The external analysis that being used is PESTEL and Porter’s Five Forces, while the internal <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> analysis using 7P Marketing Mix as it tools of analysis. By analyzing these two factors, the <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> strength, weakness, opportunities, and threat that revolving around JOB Tomori has been known <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> and being represented in the form of SWOT analysis. The result from SWOT analysis as well as <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> FGD session, benchmarking, and literature review is used as input for risk identification. Each of <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> the risk is measured by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a semi-quantitative method <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> which is a flexible, easy to understand way to support decision making process by picking the <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> best from available alternatives. Expert Choice software also being used to assist the AHP <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> calculation. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Through AHP calculation, it is known that the most important risk category is operational <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> category with eigenvalue of 0,202 and need to be prioritized both for the evaluation and <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> mitigation. In addition, according to risk matrix it is known that JOB Tomori possess 3 high level <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> of subcategory risk, which are : (1) Operational failure, (2) Oil and gas price fluctuation, and (3) <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Incompatible intention with buyers regarding new program. Since company resource is limited, it <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> is necessary to focus the resources to mitigate these three risks since if they occur it will bring <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> heavy impact to the company. <br />