FULFILLMENT OF ELECTRICITY NEEDS IN INDONESIA FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS USING SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH

• Main Author: DWI WIJAYANTO (NIM 29316051), HARI
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/27727
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia has a dream that electricity across the island to be light up as in Java or other countries, as well as ensuring the availability of electricity in sufficient quantity, good quality and reasonable price to improve the welfare of the people is a must, as mandated by Law Number 30 of 2009 on Electricity. Indonesia as the largest archipelago in the world, has its own challenges in energy supply infrastructure compared with continental countries. Archipelagic country is difficult to provide integrated access infrastructure of the region that already has sufficient access to the remote areas, for example in the border region and left behind. Access to adequate energy concentrated in the central area of the center of government and the economy. <br /> <br /> In reality, the electrification ratio Indonesia until first semester 2017 just around 93,08%. Even more, there are two provinces (NTT and Papua) that have electrification ratio below 70% (NTT 58,99% and Papua 48,91%). Compared with other ASEAN countries, Indonesia's national electrification ratio is still low. The electrification ratio of Thailand and Singapore already 100%. Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam have 99% electrification ratio and Vietnam with electrification ratio reaching 98%. Therefore, at this time the Government seeks to achieve electrification ratio 97,35% in 2019. <br /> <br /> For that reason, the government is trying to improve the development of electricity infrastructure in Indonesia, among others through the construction of a 35.000 MW program. But to realize this, the government must face high uncertainty of the future. So it needed scenario planning approach to prevent unwanted conditions. <br /> <br /> The purpose of this study is not only to provide an overview of the future situation in the electricity industry and all aspects that may impact on changes in the electricity sector, but also being able to transform from one scenario to another scenario with a better future. So it will be able to generate a powerful strategy for dealing with the future along with the implications and options that will occur for each scenario that is generated. Through this research will generate the possibility of future opportunities and preparing for future competitive challenges. <br /> <br /> This research uses primary data and secondary data. Primary data is conducted through interviews with experts in the electricity sector to find the driving factors that affect the fulfillment of electricity needs along with the main uncertainty factors that have the greatest impact and strategies to deal with it. While the secondary data obtained through the Directorate General of Electricity and also from the literature to determine the external analysis and analysis of current electrical industry conditions. <br /> <br /> From the analysis, there are two main uncertainty factors with the greatest impact that is the level of economic growth and security of primary energy supply to power plant. Then these two factors of uncertainty are used as axis to create four quadrants containing four scenarios that will occur. The four scenarios are Alert Industry, Full of Light Industry, Climbdown Industry, and Blackout Industry. Alert industry is concerned with primary energy supply security that will be a major problem in the next ten years. There are limitations in using primary energy so that the development of the 35,000 MW program becomes delayed. Full of Light industry contains a description that the development of electricity infrastructure can run smoothly so that the target in electrification ratio can be achieved. There is an increase in electricity consumption so that the increase in electricity sales and growth of other sectors also increased. Climbdown industry contains a description of the situation of the decline in economic growth is directly proportional to the decline in the level of electricity consumption in the household sector, business, and industry. So government intervention is needed to improve economic conditions and create new electricity needs. This is also related to PLN's financial condition because with the system delivered or pay, they still have to pay the electricity that has been distributed by IPP. While the Blackout industry is a description of the most difficult situation that will be experienced, namely the electricity industry is threatened due to declining economic growth and low security of primary energy supply. PLN and IPP will face obstacles in the development of electricity infrastructure due to the uncertainty of primary energy supply and the emergence of a potential increase in electricity tariffs that will result in reduced electricity consumption from all sectors.