FLEXIBILITY MODELING OF PLAN OF DEVELOPMENT (POD) THROUGH THE UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERATION USING FUZZY ALGORITHM

• Main Author: AZHAR LUBIS - NIM: 22215010 , IHSANUDDIN
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/27937
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

<p align="justify">Field development planning activities (POD) have various uncertainties that should be included from the initial stage to the final stage in the preparation. In the preparation of POD there are several uncertainties that need to be included in the overall process: geological modeling and reservoir, development scenario, field development facility, facility development project schedule, calculation and economic analysis. Some uncertainties for each of these POD stages will be simulated using fuzzy time series algorithms with the objective of providing flexibility while maintaining reliability in the decision making process. Fuzzy time series will be applied in answering how big the windows of answer is in this POD case. Based on reference study and experience of modeling practice that has been done, the uncertainty value for Recovery Factor (RF) is obtained ± 10%, Production Capacity is ± 9%, price escalation equal to ± 2% and Net Present Value (NPV) equal to ± 10%. This uncertainty is used as input on fuzzy calculations. Based on simulation and modeling using fuzzy time series, the prediction of uncertainty value from oil price is ± 5.27%, production profile of field "X" is ± 4.8%, withdrawal rate of field "X" is ± 45.81% and NPV of field "X" is 219,618&#8804;NPV&#8804;423,711 MUSD.<p align="justify"> <br />