Value at Risk (VaR) in Postpay Business of PT. Pos Indonesia: Case study of Asia Afrika Post Office

• Main Author: Kreshna Melanda 29116214, Surgia
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/31143
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

According to the report of The Financial Services Authority (OJK) about Digital Financial Inclusion in Indonesia, unbanked people in informal sector Indonesia 2014 equal to 64%. The high number of people who do not have an account at the bank, is an opportunity for non-banking institusions to meet the needs of unbanked people. One of them is PT. Pos Indonesia who provides Postpay services to fulfill the needs of people in making purchases and payment transactions in one place. This service uses a network of SystemsOnline Payment Point (SOPP) that has reached 4,800 Post Office networks throughout Indonesia and at 40,000 agents. PT. Pos Indonesia have been cooperating with more than 300 billers. Based on interview with Manager Postpay in Post Head Office and Service Manager of Asia Afrika Post Office, system or network and financial services application error are problems that often happen on System Online Payment Point (SOPP) Postpay. The error can be occured to the whole network or only to a specific biller application. This problem mostly happen at the end of the month, usually on day-20 since most of Indonesian people pay the bill on the last day on the payment due date. It disrupts the business operational such as customers are not able to make transaction, biller cannot receive the bill payment, and PT. Pos Indonesia cannot achieve daily or monthly target of transaction. <br /> <br /> This research aims to analyze Postpay’s value at risk (VaR) using historical data and using monte carlo simulation and to know the best biller in term of ratio between value at risk (VaR) and average weekly transaction. The author used conseptual framework from ISO 31000:2009 regarding risk management process. To identify the risk some methods are used, such as observation, brainstorming and interview with Manager Postpay at Head Office and Service Manager of Asia Afrika Post Office, reference from risk assessment document of Division of Risk Management and GCG, and SWOT analysis. The analysis regarding of risk is using value at risk calculation and compared value at risk with average weekly transaction. <br /> <br /> The results of analysis show that value at risk (VaR) of biller MPN G2 is Rp 6.906,945,339, value at risk (VaR) of biller MPN G2 greater than the value at risk (VaR) of all billers. Based on monte carlo simulation the average certainty of value at risk is in the range of 50% -75% and the best biller in term of ratio between value at risk (VaR) and average weekly transaction is MPN G2 and PLN Postpaid Zona 2 with ratio 1.009 and 0.627 because with low ratio between value at risk and average weekly transaction, it has higher weekly transaction. <br />