ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF UPPER CISOKAN PUMPED STORAGE HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT

• Main Author: Hawari, Kahhar
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/46000
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Upper Cisokan will be the first Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Power Plant in Indonesia. This power plant is a solution from PLN, a state owned electricity company, to provide peak power generation in Java-Bali grid system in a socially and environmentally sustainable way. The Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Power Plant (UCPS HPP) planned installed capacity is 1,040 MW with a six hour generation time. The UCPS HPP will replace power from Gas Fired Power Plant (GFPP) or sometimes called Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) that fueled by Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), as existing power plant that provide peak power in Java-Bali grid system. However, the delayed development of UCPS HPP have made economic and financial analysis outdated and needs to be updated. In order to assess the economic and financial feasibility of UCPS HPP project, a present analysis of its value in Indonesia grid system has to be performed. The Economic feasibility of UCPS HPP can be unfold in three different approaches, which are long-term, mid-term, and simplified economic analysis. The result of long-term and mid-term economic analysis that come from WASP and JROS model simulation, supports the classic economical model based on the avoided cost model. A probabilistic approach with Monte Carlo simulation also applied to the model. The Financial Analysis of UCPS HPP project in this study follows the scheme of classic financial accounting, which are Cash Flow, Profit & Loss, Financing and Investment Plan, and it does not include the ancillary services provided by UCPS HPP to the grid. The economic analysis using simplified avoided cost model shows that UCPS HPP is preferred than the alternative thermal plant (GFPP). From the simulations, it can be seen that a likelihood of the EIRR >10.00% is 98.00%, NPV > 0 is 98.00%, and the B/C ratio > 1.00 is 99.50%. A variance analysis shows that a gas fuel cost is the highest variable that have a positive correlation on the NPV, EIRR, and B/C ratio. While UCPS HPP construction cost, on the other hand, have medium to high influence with the negative correlation on the model. The results of Financial Analysis for the Base Case shows that the UCPS HPP project is Financially Sound. The FIRR of 15.07% compares significantly with the estimated RWACC of 5.65%. The Financial NPV is also positive, with estimated 2,152 Million USD. The Average DSCR is 4.10, far higher than the minimum value accepted by PLN, which is 1.50. In addition to the base case, some cases of the sensitivity analysis have been performed, which shows that the project is financially viable for all the analyzed case.