AN EARLY MODEL OF COVID-19 TRANSMISION IN INDONESIA
The SARS-COV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, has spread throughout the world. As of March 2, 2020, Indonesia has confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the number of cases is increasing rapidly within a few weeks. An understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and the steps involved is importa...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/52246 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | The SARS-COV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, has spread throughout the world.
As of March 2, 2020, Indonesia has confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the number
of cases is increasing rapidly within a few weeks. An understanding of the dynamics
of disease transmission and the steps involved is important for dealing with this
virus. This study aims to simulate the spread of COVID-19 and to analyze effective
policy strategies in Indonesia. The SEIQR model is proposed in this thesis and
its application to the available data. In addition, this model is also developed by
involving intervention factors that have a role in the spread of the virus in an area.
The physical distancing intervention strategy is aimed at vulnerable individuals as
a variable that allows them to be controlled by various policies. The results showed
that the application of physical distancing intervention by 75% was very influential
in reducing the number of new infections. Increasing case detection on a large scale
could reduce the number of hidden cases that could result in new infections. Delays
in policy implementation will have an impact on increasing the number of cases.
Distance limiting is one way to contain the spread of the virus which may allow the
formation of new clusters. |
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