AN EARLY MODEL OF COVID-19 TRANSMISION IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Aini, Wirdatul
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/52246
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The SARS-COV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, has spread throughout the world. As of March 2, 2020, Indonesia has confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the number of cases is increasing rapidly within a few weeks. An understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and the steps involved is important for dealing with this virus. This study aims to simulate the spread of COVID-19 and to analyze effective policy strategies in Indonesia. The SEIQR model is proposed in this thesis and its application to the available data. In addition, this model is also developed by involving intervention factors that have a role in the spread of the virus in an area. The physical distancing intervention strategy is aimed at vulnerable individuals as a variable that allows them to be controlled by various policies. The results showed that the application of physical distancing intervention by 75% was very influential in reducing the number of new infections. Increasing case detection on a large scale could reduce the number of hidden cases that could result in new infections. Delays in policy implementation will have an impact on increasing the number of cases. Distance limiting is one way to contain the spread of the virus which may allow the formation of new clusters.