STUDY OF SOCIAL ECONOMIC OF POST PRODUCTION ARUN LNG REFINERY UTILIZATION AS LNG RECEIVING TERMINAL AND REGASIFICATION UPONLOCAL ECONOMY

• Main Author: Alisastromijoyo
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/54662
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The aim of study is the development analysis of post production Arun LNG refinery whose period of operation since 1978 will be the end by 2014, then utilized as LNG receiving terminal and regasification is useful to satisfy gas requirement in Aceh and North Sumatera regions. The Arun refinery may be modified into LNG receiving terminal and regasification tanks to some well, reasonable facilities on available to use. To realize the feasibility of a project, a study of economy was conducted in 2 years period of improvement, 20 years operation, and supply of LNG some 150 MMSCFD for first year, 200 MMSCFD second year, rise to 250 MMSCFD in third year, to 300 MMSCFD fourth year and to 350 MMSCFD fifth year to twentieth year for maximum capacity of production. The study of the project feasibility is carried out by way of 3 parameters: NPV, IRR and BCR. As for the result economic analysis feasible in whith the NPV is US$ 889.774 million, IRR 19%, B/CRatio 4. PT. Arun was delivering significant contributions of North Aceh economic composing sectors; it is visible in 1978-2005, as oil and gas rose from IDR 120 billion in 1978 to IDR 7.79 trillion in 2005 with 26% average rate of growth per year. In 1978 regional gross domestic product rose from IDR 42.78 billion to IDR 2.15 trillion in 2005 with 23% average rate of growth per year, while in reduction of 2006-2012 North Aceh Regional Gross Domestic Product on base year of 2000 constant price, a reduction of IDR 7.68 trillion in 2006 to IDR 4.32 trillion in 2012. Average rate of growth minus nine percent (-9%) per year (with oil and natural gas); while without oil and natural gas, the Regional Goss Domestic Product of North Aceh in 2006 is IDR 2.46 trillion, it is rising to IDR 3.07 trillion in 2012. Based on the mean rate of growth (4%) per year, the condition reflects potential decline of local output and their considerable relevance to decrease in production of PT. Arun. Based on the study, the Arun LNG Refinery utilization will be delivering contribution of GRDP based on 2000 constant price some IDR 1.081 trillion in 2015, rise to IDR 2.651 trillion in 2034 and the rate of growth at 16% per year. When the degree of change in GRDP (?Y) is related to Arun LNG Refinery Utilization, the projection of investment and job opportunity for formation of GRDP per year will be discovered. In 2016, the PT. Arun may produce job opportunities (?N) for 84.477 people or 5.280 people per rise of 1.0% GRDP. Furthermore, in 2034 the job opportunities have reduction to 5.277 people or 330 people per rise of 1.0% GRDP. By the year of projection, mean value of labor (?L) is IDR 138.49 billion and mean job opportunity (?N) is 18.411 people or 1.153 people per rise of 1.0% GRDP. The rate of investment in 2016 is IDR 202.60 billion; it is possible will be declining to IDR 1.10 trillion in 2020. Subsequently, by 2021 the rate will have rise some IDR 1.32 billion to IDR 12.65 billion in 2034. It is, of course, accompanied by change in investment during period of 2015-2034 at, on average, IDR 46.55 billion per year. Growth rate of labor productivity decline, this is due to the growth of labor is higher than the growth of capital and capital productivity would other wise rise. Labor productivity level in capital-labor ratio in Y/L and Y/K with LNG Refinery utilization larger than Y/L and Y/K without Arun LNG Refinery utilization.This project have net social gain (NSG) in 2015 IDR 72.12 billion with net gain coefficient (NGC) some 6.70% had increase in 2034 some IDR 91.44 billion or NGC some 3.64% with average NGC some 3.77% per annum.