SENSING THE FUTURE OF LIFESTYLE INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA USING SCENARIO PLANNING: A CASE STUDY OF TRAVELOKA XPERIENCE

• Main Author: Bandaso, Gabriela
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/57808
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Lifestyle industry in Indonesia has been growing rapidly in the recent years, especially in urban cities, such as Jakarta, Bandung, or Surabaya. Data shows that this industry has a linear growth from 2010 and has made Indonesia the top three countries with biggest creative economy contribution to the country GDP in 2019, after South Korea and USA. However, in 2020, its growth stalled because of the Covid-19 pandemic that crippled the global economy, including Indonesia. Now, after a year of experiencing the turbulences, uncertainty, novel, and ambiguous condition posed by the pandemic, the businesses within this industry need to have a better preparation and see what might lies ahead. In this case, scenario planning approach is used for strategic planning by identifying the plausible future for the lifestyle industry in Indonesia in the next five years. This research utilizes TAIDA scenario planning framework. The data used in this research is obtained through the literature review and interview with internal and external stakeholders. The research also utilized PESTEL framework to analyze the contextual environment and SWOT framework to analyze the transactional environment. The key focal issue of the research is what can be the outlook of the lifestyle industry in Indonesia in the next five years. Based on the interview results, several driving forces are identified, and global economy recovery and lifestyle shift into sustainability are derived as the two main uncertain driving forces to form the scenario planning framework. There are four scenarios generated and each of the scenario is assigned with its narratives, implications and options, and early warning signals. The early warning signals are used as the key indicators of which scenario is unfolding. The company needs to conduct regular monitoring of the early warning signals. Finally, the research also gives strategy recommendations to the company for each scenario.