INVESTMENT PROJECT ANALYSIS OF UNDERGROUND HIGH VOLTAGE CABLE REPLACEMENT : CASE STUDY OF PT PLN (PERSERO) IN AREA X
Increasing population growth and technology require adequate electricity infrastructure support. PT PLN (Persero) as a State-Owned Enterprise (BUMN) entrusted by the government to manage electricity by Law No. 30 of 2009. Through the ten-year work program as outlined in the RUPTL, PT PLN (Persero) c...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
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| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/63763 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Increasing population growth and technology require adequate electricity infrastructure support. PT PLN (Persero) as a State-Owned Enterprise (BUMN) entrusted by the government to manage electricity by Law No. 30 of 2009. Through the ten-year work program as outlined in the RUPTL, PT PLN (Persero) carried out various additions to electricity infrastructure and strived to maintain the reliability of the electrical system so that it can be in line with the vision of PT PLN (Persero), which is to become the customer's first choice for energy solutions. Java Island has the highest electrical energy consumption in Indonesia, especially for DKI Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. However, the reserve margin has reached a safe limit, above 30%. PT PLN (Persero) is faced with the challenge of the electrical system’s reliability due to disturbances in the Underground High Voltage (UHV) Cable in area X. Of the two operating circuits. Currently, only one circuit can be utilized due to oil leakage in the cables. The operating life and economy of the cable are nearing the end is one of the causes of the decline in cable performance. To maintain this reliability stability, it is necessary to replace UHV Cable in area X. Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, PT PLN (Persero) is more selective in providing investment budget allocations. A ceiling budget has been set for UHV Cable in area X.
This research is conducted to analyze two alternative investment scenarios to be considered by PT PLN (Persero). The first scenario is to replace parts of the UHV Cable and the second scenario is to replace the entire UHV Cable in area X. The method used in this research is capital budgeting analysis to determine the best investment alternative for PT PLN (Persero). This research also conducts a risk analysis to determine the very sensitive parameters influencing the project’s feasibility.
Of the two alternatives that have been considered by PT PLN (Persero), scenario 1 is the best investment that has met the investment criteria and the ceiling budget of PT PLN (Persero). Based on the investment project analysis, the NPV value is IDR 237.489.737,00 (in thousand), IRR 13,13%, Profitability Index 1,47, payback period 8,96 years, and discounted payback period 8,96 years. From the sensitivity analysis, the four most sensitive parameters were obtained, namely electricity rates, Capacity Factor (CF), EPC costs, and Income Tax. In the monte Carlo Simulation analysis, it is found that the probability of a negative NPV or a value of 0 is 0%, the probability of a NPV greater than IDR 237.489.737,00 (In a Thousand) is 33,69%, the probability of a NPV being lower than IDR
237.489.737,00 (In a Thousand) is 66,31%. This shows that replacing parts of the UHV Cable in area X has met all the PT PLN (Persero) criteria and is eligible for investment.
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