SCENARIO-BASED POLICY FOR TOURISM BASED ON TOURISTS’ BEHAVIOUR INTENTION DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

• Main Author: Chandra Pratiwi, Imas
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/64934
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The emergence of COVID-19 at the end of 2019 and has been spread globally since 2020 affected global economic and socio-cultural. This leads the way of tourists to take a decision to travel has altered. As consequence, tourism industry became one of the most severely affected industries by the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent studies have discovered how tourists’ decision-making process during the pandemic. However, since the problems faced by the tourism industry to raise the number of tourists during COVID-19 are complex, analysing how system in environment interact to influence tourists’ intention amid the pandemic is very important. Thus, this study intended to develop scenario-based policies for tourism during COVID19 using system dynamics approach to assist tourism in raising the number of tourists during the pandemic. Statistical analysis with 534 respondents was done using extended TPB framework to identify tourists’ intention during COVID-19. This analysis found that tourists’ decision-making process is significantly influenced by attitude, perceived behavioural control, subjective norm, and perception of COVID-19. Further, causal loop diagram and stock and flow diagram were developed to identify the structure of tourists’ intention and generate scenariobased policy based on tourists’ intention structure. System dynamics result found there are seven scenario-based policies that can be implemented by tourism to raise more tourists amid the pandemic. Moreover, to raise the optimum number of tourists, tourism need to implement integrated policies that embrace the antecedent factors of tourists’ intention. Finally, the findings of present study contribute to the tourism and system dynamics body of knowledge and also provide scientific guidelines for tourism to enhance more tourists during the pandemic. Keywords: Tourism policy, tourists’ intention, theory of planned behaviour, system dynamics, COVID-19.