DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN DEVELOPING A “QUICK WIN” PROGRAM TO INCREASE OIL PRODUCTION IN PHE SUBHOLDING UPSTREAM

• Main Author: Wicaksono, Aditya
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/67138
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Throughout 2021, PT PHE as an Subholding Upstream, faced the issue of unachieveable drilling well target with the realization of 350 wells from the target of 396 wells, or only 88.4% of the YTD RKAP Revisi target, and only 294 wells from a total of 350 wells or 84% of the Revised RKAP target that were successfully onstream. This issue has an impact on the oil production target from August to December 2021 which was not achieved. As a result, the total realization of oil production up to Q4 in 2021 was 445.3 MBOEPD or 88.2% of the oil production target of 504.85 MBOEPD. The analysis of the problem is detailed by the Fault Tree Analysis method, where at the top of the tree, there is a peak event based on risk management activities and the identification of the main root cause is based on the activities of the Technical Review Subsurface Quality Dev. Drilling Result. The results of the analysis are: 1) proposed wells that are not economically uneconomical or economically marginalized, 2) subsurface issues when and after drilling takes place, and 3) completion problems. The combination of decision-making methods, Weighted Sum Model and Decision Tree Analysis is utilized in determining the ranking of alternatives and proposed wells that are the most superior and easy to execute as the main guide in the development of the Quick Program in Subholding Upstream. There are 10 criteria and 15 subcriteria defined as references in decision making. Then, weight from each criteria and subcriteria is determined based on the experience of oil and gas experts. The determination of the assessment weight that is utilized as a reference in decision making is as follows: values 1 – 2 for very low preferences, values 3 for medium preferences, and values 4 – 5 for high and very high preferences. The results of the calculation with the WSM method in the form of alternative rankings in Regional 2 area are 202 fields with the following description: 2 fields with very low category, 89 fields with low category, 97 fields with medium category, 37 fields with high category, and 12 fields with very high category. Meanwhile, from the calculation with the DTA method, the wells that have superior EMV total 41 wells with the following description: 20 proposed wells located in Zona 5, 6 proposed wells in Zona 6, and 15 proposed wells located in Zona 7. As a result, the Quick Win Program simulation showed an increase in production compared to the original case in production profile forecast of the RKAP 2023 development wells and can be implemented within the organization.