DEMAND FORECASTING ANALYSIS USING TIME SERIES METHODS AT AYAM LODHO PAK YUSUF RESTAURANT

• Main Author: Cholik Hidayatullah, Mochamad
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/78661
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Food service industry have experienced tremendous growth in recent years. Its contribution to Indonesian GDP increased significantly from 2010 to 2015. This growth indicated that demand from consumer have grown rapidly throughout the years. As one of the food service industry, Ayam Lodho Pak Yusuf (ALPY) restaurant encountered demand fluctuation as the impact of enormous demand from consumer. Growth of restaurant business drew uncertainty in consumer demand. Barely with subjective judgment, ALPY restaurant tried to forecast its daily demand. As the implication, stock out occurred frequently especially in the peak period. This research aims to construct proper demand forecasting which match with demand pattern at ALPY restaurant. Forecast period varied from Weekdays Forecast, Weekend Forecast, Christmas & New Year’s Holidays Forecast, and Eid Forecast. Demand data which ranged from 2012 to 2015 will be analyzed using time series methods which comprise of static method, four period moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt’s model and Winter’s model. Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) will be used to measure error. Technique which produced lowest error considered will be chosen as the proper forecasting technique. The calculation concluded that simple exponential smoothing was favorable to forecast demand in weekdays as well as Christmas and New Year’s holidays period. Winter’s model surpassed other methods to forecast demand in weekend period. While in the Eid holidays, Holt’s model became the best forecast method to use in this period. To utilize the methods provided in this study, manager at ALPY restaurant required to record historical sales data systematically, measure the accuracy of forecast method properly, use the proposed methods in the right time period, and commit to learn the concept of forecasting methods delivered. The measurement of tracking signal proposed to the manager in track and control the forecasting method.