A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT DELAYS AND ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES IN SELECTED EUROPEAN AIRLINES

• Main Author: A Ayu Diah Windusari, A
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/78954
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Disruption is an inherent risk that might arise because of the complexity and dynamic nature of air transport operations. In the aviation business, disruptions or irregularities are leading to flight delays, cancellations, and operational challenges. It can happen for a variety of reasons, including severe weather, pandemics, trade disputes, financial crises, cyber-attacks, insider threats, and supply chain disruption from third-party and partner threats. Passengers, airlines, and airports may experience significant inconvenience, resulting in not only financial losses but also missed productivity for passengers and other support industries. The cost of these irregular operations accounted for around 5% of airline revenue. The aviation industry must be able to mitigate the impact of disruptions through the implementation of suitable management practices for irregular operations, which include improved planning, coordination, and communication. That is why this study is aiming to contribute to the improvement goals for airlines. Although there were several studies that already analyzed the correlation between delay factors using the same variables, this study provides updated data from the recent year and provides a comprehensive estimation of delay costs per flight segment using historical data from selected European airlines. Developing an analysis based on actual data is very important to get a better understanding of the characteristics of the flight delay and to define the estimation of the cost-benefit of adding buffer to the schedule. This thesis aims to develop an analysis of flight delays experienced by a European airline and evaluate the correlation between the delay factors based on various flight operation parameters. The method that was used is the dependencies test through correspondence analysis in contingency tables. This correspondence analysis allows the identification of the relationship between one or more category variables in contingency tables by graphical technique. This study identified the correlation between the length of delays and the aircraft operated, the flight type, and the reference period. We also looked for the impact of the schedule departure time and the reason for the delay over time. Beside the delay factor analysis, this study determines the financial consequences of flight delays by finding the total tactical cost considering the network level and base scenario. In the end, compare the cost with the previous study that estimated the cost of delays for American airlines using the same approach, which is the Eurocontrol guideline. The data in this study was collected from an internal airline database during a five-year period, from 2018 until 2022. By doing the analysis, we can identify the contribution trend of flight delays over the year, including the COVID-19 pandemic period, which is very affecting the air transport business. The analysis shows that although there was a significant reduction in flights operated during 2020 and 2021, the proportion of delayed flights was still above 55%. All the association's analysis shows there are dependencies between the variables, despite the weak correlation. Additionally, research demonstrated that larger planes and long-haul flights had a tendency to have longer delays. The delayed flight showed that there was no significant change in delay at any time of day over the reference period. During the COVID-19 period that affected the aviation business in 2020 and 2021, the highest percentage of delayed flights occurred during the day, and there was a trend toward reducing delays due to flight crew management, passengers, and baggage. And lastly, European airlines have significantly higher costs of delays per flight and per minute of delay compared to American airlines. One of the reasons is that passenger compensation costs incurred by an airline in Europe are far higher than on American flights. For future improvement, this study can be upgraded by analyzing different variables using the multidimensional correspondence analysis method for studying complex interactions between categorical variables.