URBAN DEVELOPMENT DYNAMIC AND ITS IMPACT ON THE SHRINKAGE AND CARRYING CAPACITY OF AGRICULTURAL LAND IN REBANA REGION 2000-2020

• Main Author: Darjatul Kamil, Insan
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Perencanaan wilayah
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/82613
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Rebana Region is set to become a metropolitan area with a lot of developmental policies which can lead to population and economic growth of the region. Both population and economic growth can also lead to increasing demand for land which can increase the area of built environment. These phenomenon may potentially cause agricultural land conversion which can threaten Rebana Region’s contribution to West Java Province’s title as one of Indonesia’s highest rice producers. In the last two decades the effect of urban development dynamic on the shrinkage of agricultural land area in Rebana Region is yet to be known. This research aims to identify the effect of urban development dynamic to the shrinkage and carrying capacity of agricultural land in Rebana Region in the last 2 decades. This research is a quantitative research that used growth rate analysis of population, economy, built/urban area, and agricultural area, multilinear regression analysis, carrying capacity analysis, and spatial analysis. The study revealed that Rebana Region experienced an overall positive growth in all of the components of urban development dynamic in the last two decades. Most of the subdistricts in Rebana Region had a positive growth in population, urban population, economy, built environment area, and urban area proportion. In the other hand, most of the subdistricts also experienced a shrinkage of agricultural land area. The multilinear regression showed that all of the components of urban development dynamics simultaneously affect the shrinkage of agricultural land area. Partially, economic growth and/or urban area proportion growth has a positive impact on the shrinkage of agricultural land which means the faster the growth of economy and/or urban area proportion growth, the faster agricultural land area shrinkage will happen. As the subsequent effect, the carrying capacity of agricultural land has been decreased from 9.18 in 2000 to 7.81 in 2020 and is projected to be as low as 6.40 in 2045.