IMPACT OF BOOSTER VACCINATION ON DIPHTHERIA TRANSMISSION: MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND RISK ZONE MAPPING
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to healthcare systems due to lockdowns and other policies, impacting vaccination and treatment of diphtheria cases. Due to this disruption, many countries have experienced a resurgence or increase in diphtheria cases. West Java Province in I...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/83753 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to healthcare systems
due to lockdowns and other policies, impacting vaccination and treatment of
diphtheria cases. Due to this disruption, many countries have experienced a resurgence
or increase in diphtheria cases. West Java Province in Indonesia has been
identified as one of the high-risk areas for diphtheria, experiencing an increasing
trend in cases from 2021 to 2023. To analyze this situation, a SIR model was
developed that integrates DPT and booster vaccinations to determine the baseline
reproduction number, an important parameter for infectious diseases. Through
spatial analysis of georeferenced data, hotspots were identified and the distribution
of diphtheria case clusters was explained. The calculation of R0, which is an
indication of the potential for the spread of diphtheria, resulted in an R0 value of
1.17, indicating the potential for a diphtheria outbreak in West Java. To control
the increase in cases, one possible approach is to increase the coverage of booster
vaccinations from the current 64.84% to 69%. Furthermore, spatial analysis shows
that clusters of hotspots (potentially endemic) are located in the western, central,
and southern regions, posing a high risk not only in densely populated areas but
also in rural areas. The pattern of diphtheria cluster diffusion indicates a contagious
pattern of spread. Understanding the increasing trend of diphtheria cases and
their geographic distribution can provide important insights for governments and
health authorities to manage the number of diphtheria cases and decide on the best
prevention and intervention strategies. |
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