IMPACT OF BOOSTER VACCINATION ON DIPHTHERIA TRANSMISSION: MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND RISK ZONE MAPPING

• Main Author: Maya Sari, Ade
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/83753
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to healthcare systems due to lockdowns and other policies, impacting vaccination and treatment of diphtheria cases. Due to this disruption, many countries have experienced a resurgence or increase in diphtheria cases. West Java Province in Indonesia has been identified as one of the high-risk areas for diphtheria, experiencing an increasing trend in cases from 2021 to 2023. To analyze this situation, a SIR model was developed that integrates DPT and booster vaccinations to determine the baseline reproduction number, an important parameter for infectious diseases. Through spatial analysis of georeferenced data, hotspots were identified and the distribution of diphtheria case clusters was explained. The calculation of R0, which is an indication of the potential for the spread of diphtheria, resulted in an R0 value of 1.17, indicating the potential for a diphtheria outbreak in West Java. To control the increase in cases, one possible approach is to increase the coverage of booster vaccinations from the current 64.84% to 69%. Furthermore, spatial analysis shows that clusters of hotspots (potentially endemic) are located in the western, central, and southern regions, posing a high risk not only in densely populated areas but also in rural areas. The pattern of diphtheria cluster diffusion indicates a contagious pattern of spread. Understanding the increasing trend of diphtheria cases and their geographic distribution can provide important insights for governments and health authorities to manage the number of diphtheria cases and decide on the best prevention and intervention strategies.