Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model

Load forecasting, particularly short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in the economy streaming and tracking of power system. Many stochastic and artificial intelligence techniques haven been used in order to come up with an accurate (less error) short-term load forecast. Here, we intr...

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Main Authors:	Monje, Jose Claro N, Teknomo, Kardi, Hermias, Jeffrel P
Format:	text
Published:	Archīum Ateneo 2018
Subjects:	Hidden Markov models Predictive models Load modeling Load forecasting Forecasting Mathematical model Training Electrical and Computer Engineering Electrical and Electronics
Online Access:	https://archium.ateneo.edu/ecce-faculty-pubs/27 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8320177
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Institution:	Ateneo De Manila University

id	ph-ateneo-arc.ecce-faculty-pubs-1026
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spelling	ph-ateneo-arc.ecce-faculty-pubs-10262020-05-05T08:53:17Z Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model Monje, Jose Claro N Teknomo, Kardi Hermias, Jeffrel P Load forecasting, particularly short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in the economy streaming and tracking of power system. Many stochastic and artificial intelligence techniques haven been used in order to come up with an accurate (less error) short-term load forecast. Here, we introduce a new approach to short-term load forecasting (STLF) using the conventional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) then compare it with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Three-dimensional continuous multivariate Gaussian emission probabilities are used in this experiment for HMM. Meanwhile for ARIMA models, different parameters are used for different kinds of dataset. Comparison is done afterwards to the actual load value using MAPE and RMSE. 2018-03-01T08:00:00Z text https://archium.ateneo.edu/ecce-faculty-pubs/27 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8320177 Electronics, Computer, and Communications Engineering Faculty Publications Archīum Ateneo Hidden Markov models Predictive models Load modeling Load forecasting Forecasting Mathematical model Training Electrical and Computer Engineering Electrical and Electronics
institution	Ateneo De Manila University
building	Ateneo De Manila University Library
continent	Asia
country	Philippines Philippines
content_provider	Ateneo De Manila University Library
collection	archium.Ateneo Institutional Repository
topic	Hidden Markov models Predictive models Load modeling Load forecasting Forecasting Mathematical model Training Electrical and Computer Engineering Electrical and Electronics
spellingShingle	Hidden Markov models Predictive models Load modeling Load forecasting Forecasting Mathematical model Training Electrical and Computer Engineering Electrical and Electronics Monje, Jose Claro N Teknomo, Kardi Hermias, Jeffrel P Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model
description	Load forecasting, particularly short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in the economy streaming and tracking of power system. Many stochastic and artificial intelligence techniques haven been used in order to come up with an accurate (less error) short-term load forecast. Here, we introduce a new approach to short-term load forecasting (STLF) using the conventional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) then compare it with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Three-dimensional continuous multivariate Gaussian emission probabilities are used in this experiment for HMM. Meanwhile for ARIMA models, different parameters are used for different kinds of dataset. Comparison is done afterwards to the actual load value using MAPE and RMSE.
format	text
author	Monje, Jose Claro N Teknomo, Kardi Hermias, Jeffrel P
author_facet	Monje, Jose Claro N Teknomo, Kardi Hermias, Jeffrel P
author_sort	Monje, Jose Claro N
title	Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model
title_short	Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model
title_full	Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model
title_fullStr	Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model
title_full_unstemmed	Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model
title_sort	short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and hidden markov model
publisher	Archīum Ateneo
publishDate	2018
url	https://archium.ateneo.edu/ecce-faculty-pubs/27 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8320177
_version_	1712577726412488704

Short-term stochastic load forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models and Hidden Markov Model

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