Probability distortion of truncated quantile critics for stock trading environment

• المؤلف الرئيسي: Foo, Marcus Jun Rong
• مؤلفون آخرون: Patrick Pun Chi Seng
• التنسيق: Final Year Project
• اللغة: English
• منشور في: Nanyang Technological University 2023
• الموضوعات: Business::Finance::Asset allocation; Engineering::Computer science and engineering::Mathematics of computing
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/166624
• المؤسسة: Nanyang Technological University

This paper proposes the use of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) in combination with Truncated Quantile Critics (TQC) for stock trading. CPT is a popular model of decision making under risk that has been shown to better describe human behavior than traditional models such as expected utility theory. TQC is a variant of the popular Quantile Regression DQN algorithm that has been shown to be more sample efficient. By combining these two models, our approach aims to better capture the decision making process of human traders. Furthermore, we incorporate Prelec weighting as a side study to mitigate time inconsistency in decision making. Our experiments in stock trading show that our proposed approach outperforms traditional methods in various portfolio metrics.