Forecasting explosion repose intervals with a non-parametric Bayesian survival model : application to Sakura-jima volcano, Japan

• Main Authors: Jenkins, Susanna F., Goldstein, H., Bebbington, M. S., Sparks, R. S. J., Koyaguchi, Takehiro
• Other Authors: Asian School of the Environment
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Vulcanian Explosions; Science::Geology; Repose
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/81144; http://hdl.handle.net/10220/49740
• Institution: Nanyang Technological University

Forecasting the repose between eruptions at a volcano is a key goal of volcanology for emergency planning and preparedness. Previous studies have used the statistical distribution of prior repose intervals to estimate the probability of a certain repose interval occurring in the future, and to offer...