Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections

The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To fa...

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Main Authors: Garner, Andra J., Weiss, Jeremy L., Parris, Adam, Kopp, Robert E., Horton, Radley M., Overpeck, Jonathan T., Horton, Benjamin Peter
Other Authors: Asian School of the Environment
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: 2018
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Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89057
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/47011
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Institution: Nanyang Technological University
Language: English
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spelling sg-ntu-dr.10356-890572023-02-28T16:41:57Z Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections Garner, Andra J. Weiss, Jeremy L. Parris, Adam Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Radley M. Overpeck, Jonathan T. Horton, Benjamin Peter Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore 21st Century Sea Level Rise DRNTU::Science::Geology The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global‐mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections shrank from 1.3–1.8 m during the 1980s to 0.6–0.9 m in 2007, before expanding again to 0.5–2.5 m since 2013. Upper projections of SLR from individual studies are generally higher than upper projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, potentially due to differing percentile bounds or a predisposition of consensus‐based approaches toward relatively conservative outcomes. NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore) MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore) Published version 2018-12-17T08:15:23Z 2019-12-06T17:16:55Z 2018-12-17T08:15:23Z 2019-12-06T17:16:55Z 2018 Journal Article Garner, A. J., Weiss, J. L., Parris, A., Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Overpeck, J. T., & Horton, B. P. (2018). Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections. Earth's Future, 6(11), 1603-1615. doi: 10.1029/2018EF000991 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89057 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/47011 10.1029/2018EF000991 en Earth's Future © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. 13 p. application/pdf
institution Nanyang Technological University
building NTU Library
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider NTU Library
collection DR-NTU
language English
topic 21st Century
Sea Level Rise
DRNTU::Science::Geology
spellingShingle 21st Century
Sea Level Rise
DRNTU::Science::Geology
Garner, Andra J.
Weiss, Jeremy L.
Parris, Adam
Kopp, Robert E.
Horton, Radley M.
Overpeck, Jonathan T.
Horton, Benjamin Peter
Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
description The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global‐mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections shrank from 1.3–1.8 m during the 1980s to 0.6–0.9 m in 2007, before expanding again to 0.5–2.5 m since 2013. Upper projections of SLR from individual studies are generally higher than upper projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, potentially due to differing percentile bounds or a predisposition of consensus‐based approaches toward relatively conservative outcomes.
author2 Asian School of the Environment
author_facet Asian School of the Environment
Garner, Andra J.
Weiss, Jeremy L.
Parris, Adam
Kopp, Robert E.
Horton, Radley M.
Overpeck, Jonathan T.
Horton, Benjamin Peter
format Article
author Garner, Andra J.
Weiss, Jeremy L.
Parris, Adam
Kopp, Robert E.
Horton, Radley M.
Overpeck, Jonathan T.
Horton, Benjamin Peter
author_sort Garner, Andra J.
title Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
title_short Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
title_full Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
title_fullStr Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
title_full_unstemmed Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
title_sort evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
publishDate 2018
url https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89057
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/47011
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