The Debiasing of Forecasts in Research and Development

• المؤلف الرئيسي: THOMAS, Howard
• التنسيق: text
• اللغة: English
• منشور في: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 1971
• الموضوعات: Business; Strategic Management Policy; Technology and Innovation
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/3928; https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9310.1971.tb00069.x

A possible way to improve the accuracy of forecasts is to estimate (and subsequently remove) any systematic bias by reference to the bias found in similar forecasts in the past. This paper discusses the applicability to industrial R & D of a method proposed by Summers for debiasing estimates of...