Managing project uncertainty: From variation to chaos

• Main Authors: DE MEYER, Arnoud, LOCH, Christoph H., PICH, Michael T.
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2002
• Subjects: Project management; Risk assessment; Executives; Management by objectives; Industrial management; Operations and Supply Chain Management
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5450; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/lkcsb_research/article/6449/viewcontent/ManagingProjectUncertainity_2002_SloanMR_afv.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

The article cites a study finding that accurately gauging the degree of uncertainty inherent in the projects can help project managers quickly adapt to it. Researchers studied 16 projects in areas including personal-computer development, telecommunications, Internet startups, pharmaceutical development, iron-ore processing, airship development, and building construction, to examine risk management and project outcomes. They found that most managers failed to recognize that there are different types of uncertainty, each requiring a different management approach. This paper explores uncertainty-based management, which derives planning, monitoring and management style from an uncertainty profile comprising four types of uncertainty: variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty, and chaos. Although each uncertainty type is unique, a single project will typically display a blend of all four. The paper further illustrates how project managers can go about managing each type of uncertainty. The paper highlights the fact that uncertainty is an inevitable facet of most projects, and in an era of rapid change, it's time to rethink some of the traditions in project management.