SKBI Big 5 Survey 2019 August

• Main Author: Singapore Management University
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2019
• Subjects: Economic outlook; GDP; inflation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; business cycles; China; Europe; India; Japan; United States; Economics; Finance and Financial Management
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/skbi/10; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1009&context=skbi

On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest majority view greater disinflationary risks in 2019 and 2020. Perhaps in light of the growing concerns over policy leeway, participants anticipate policymakers in Japan to be generally more reluctant on pursuing additional policy stimulus (monetary and fiscal) at the outset. Although participants appear to view Euro Area policymakers to be less hesitant on fresh stimulus measures (monetary and fiscal), policy efficacy might be an increasingly crucial issue going forward.