SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February

• Main Author: Singapore Management University
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2020
• Subjects: Economic outlook; GDP; inflation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; business cycles; China; Europe; India; Japan; United States; Economics; Finance and Financial Management
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/skbi/14; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=skbi

On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more uneven, with potential upside risks in China. Nevertheless, participants seem to coalesce toward a more balanced inflation risk assessment in 2021 and 2022. Despite the general downside risks to growth this year, participants still seem to view the propensity toward easier policies (both monetary and fiscal) to be less uniform across the Big5 economies. Finally, participants also appear to have reduced the potential risks of a recession in the US, Euro Area and (to a lesser extent) Japan by 2022, but bumped up the risks of a “sharp slowdown” in China relative to the prior survey.