SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February

On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect th...

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Main Author: Singapore Management University
Format: text
Language:English
Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2020
Subjects:
GDP
Online Access:https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/skbi/14
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=skbi
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spelling sg-smu-ink.skbi-10102021-09-02T03:57:12Z SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February Singapore Management University On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more uneven, with potential upside risks in China. Nevertheless, participants seem to coalesce toward a more balanced inflation risk assessment in 2021 and 2022. Despite the general downside risks to growth this year, participants still seem to view the propensity toward easier policies (both monetary and fiscal) to be less uniform across the Big5 economies. Finally, participants also appear to have reduced the potential risks of a recession in the US, Euro Area and (to a lesser extent) Japan by 2022, but bumped up the risks of a “sharp slowdown” in China relative to the prior survey. 2020-02-01T08:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/skbi/14 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=skbi http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Economic outlook GDP inflation monetary policy fiscal policy business cycles China Europe India Japan United States Economics Finance and Financial Management
institution Singapore Management University
building SMU Libraries
continent Asia
country Singapore
Singapore
content_provider SMU Libraries
collection InK@SMU
language English
topic Economic outlook
GDP
inflation
monetary policy
fiscal policy
business cycles
China
Europe
India
Japan
United States
Economics
Finance and Financial Management
spellingShingle Economic outlook
GDP
inflation
monetary policy
fiscal policy
business cycles
China
Europe
India
Japan
United States
Economics
Finance and Financial Management
Singapore Management University
SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February
description On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more uneven, with potential upside risks in China. Nevertheless, participants seem to coalesce toward a more balanced inflation risk assessment in 2021 and 2022. Despite the general downside risks to growth this year, participants still seem to view the propensity toward easier policies (both monetary and fiscal) to be less uniform across the Big5 economies. Finally, participants also appear to have reduced the potential risks of a recession in the US, Euro Area and (to a lesser extent) Japan by 2022, but bumped up the risks of a “sharp slowdown” in China relative to the prior survey.
format text
author Singapore Management University
author_facet Singapore Management University
author_sort Singapore Management University
title SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February
title_short SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February
title_full SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February
title_fullStr SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February
title_full_unstemmed SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February
title_sort skbi big 5 survey 2020 february
publisher Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
publishDate 2020
url https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/skbi/14
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=skbi
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