SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February
On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect th...
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sg-smu-ink.skbi-10102021-09-02T03:57:12Z SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February Singapore Management University On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more uneven, with potential upside risks in China. Nevertheless, participants seem to coalesce toward a more balanced inflation risk assessment in 2021 and 2022. Despite the general downside risks to growth this year, participants still seem to view the propensity toward easier policies (both monetary and fiscal) to be less uniform across the Big5 economies. Finally, participants also appear to have reduced the potential risks of a recession in the US, Euro Area and (to a lesser extent) Japan by 2022, but bumped up the risks of a “sharp slowdown” in China relative to the prior survey. 2020-02-01T08:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/skbi/14 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=skbi http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University Economic outlook GDP inflation monetary policy fiscal policy business cycles China Europe India Japan United States Economics Finance and Financial Management |
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On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more uneven, with potential upside risks in China. Nevertheless, participants seem to coalesce toward a more balanced inflation risk assessment in 2021 and 2022. Despite the general downside risks to growth this year, participants still seem to view the propensity toward easier policies (both monetary and fiscal) to be less uniform across the Big5 economies. Finally, participants also appear to have reduced the potential risks of a recession in the US, Euro Area and (to a lesser extent) Japan by 2022, but bumped up the risks of a “sharp slowdown” in China relative to the prior survey. |
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SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February |
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SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February |
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SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February |
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SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February |
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SKBI Big 5 Survey 2020 February |
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skbi big 5 survey 2020 february |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
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2020 |
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https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/skbi/14 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=skbi |
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