Do analysts’ EPS forecasts obey Benford’s Law? An empirical analysis
Benford’s law gives the expected frequencies of digits in tabulated data. In this study, I investigate the extent to which a sample of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasts obey Benford’s law. I conduct Benford’s law’s second digit and last-two digits tests on a sample of analyst EPS forecast...
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| Format: | text |
| Language: | English |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University
2022
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| Online Access: | https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1976 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/3003/viewcontent/4837_17106_1_10_20220804_pvoa_ccbyncsa.pdf |
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| Institution: | Singapore Management University |
| Language: | English |
| Summary: | Benford’s law gives the expected frequencies of digits in tabulated data. In this study, I investigate the extent to which a sample of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasts obey Benford’s law. I conduct Benford’s law’s second digit and last-two digits tests on a sample of analyst EPS forecasts of S&P 500 firms from 1998 to 2018. Overall, I find that analysts’ EPS forecasts obey Benford’s law’s second digit test but do not obey the last-two digits test. These findings suggest that while analysts do not engage in number invention, they do engage in rounding when making EPS forecasts. |
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