Do analysts’ EPS forecasts obey Benford’s Law? An empirical analysis

• Main Author: GOH, Clarence
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2022
• Subjects: Benford’s law; earnings per share; forecasting; Accounting; Finance and Financial Management; Portfolio and Security Analysis
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soa_research/1976; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soa_research/article/3003/viewcontent/4837_17106_1_10_20220804_pvoa_ccbyncsa.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

Benford’s law gives the expected frequencies of digits in tabulated data. In this study, I investigate the extent to which a sample of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasts obey Benford’s law. I conduct Benford’s law’s second digit and last-two digits tests on a sample of analyst EPS forecasts of S&P 500 firms from 1998 to 2018. Overall, I find that analysts’ EPS forecasts obey Benford’s law’s second digit test but do not obey the last-two digits test. These findings suggest that while analysts do not engage in number invention, they do engage in rounding when making EPS forecasts.