Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions
This paper considers how electoral competition affects voters’ turnout and candidate choice. We do so via an instrumental-variable (IV) bivariate probit with selection which jointly estimates both processes. Our analysis controls for individual and election characteristics, campaigning, and election...
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sg-smu-ink.soe_research-19432019-05-01T03:31:40Z Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions LANDI, Massimiliano YIP, Chun Seng This paper considers how electoral competition affects voters’ turnout and candidate choice. We do so via an instrumental-variable (IV) bivariate probit with selection which jointly estimates both processes. Our analysis controls for individual and election characteristics, campaigning, and election day weather. We focus on the effects of negative advertising (tone) and overall spending (intensity) on several aspects of voter behavior, including abstentions. Our findings: tone increases turnout of Independents only, and can strengthen partisanship among non-voters. Campaign intensity matters more than tone. Overall, there is evidence that Democrats, Independents and Republicans have different propensities to react to campaigning, which do not follow a straightforward pattern. We also show that failure to consider turnout in voter choices leads to erroneous conclusions. 2006-12-01T08:00:00Z text application/pdf https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/944 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/1943/viewcontent/camp11.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Research Collection School Of Economics eng Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
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This paper considers how electoral competition affects voters’ turnout and candidate choice. We do so via an instrumental-variable (IV) bivariate probit with selection which jointly estimates both processes. Our analysis controls for individual and election characteristics, campaigning, and election day weather. We focus on the effects of negative advertising (tone) and overall spending (intensity) on several aspects of voter behavior, including abstentions. Our findings: tone increases turnout of Independents only, and can strengthen partisanship among non-voters. Campaign intensity matters more than tone. Overall, there is evidence that Democrats, Independents and Republicans have different propensities to react to campaigning, which do not follow a straightforward pattern. We also show that failure to consider turnout in voter choices leads to erroneous conclusions. |
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LANDI, Massimiliano YIP, Chun Seng |
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LANDI, Massimiliano YIP, Chun Seng Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions |
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LANDI, Massimiliano YIP, Chun Seng |
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LANDI, Massimiliano |
title |
Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions |
title_short |
Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions |
title_full |
Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions |
title_fullStr |
Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions |
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Campaign Tactics and Citizens' Electoral Decisions |
title_sort |
campaign tactics and citizens' electoral decisions |
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Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University |
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2006 |
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https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/944 https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/1943/viewcontent/camp11.pdf |
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