JUE insight: Migration, transportation infrastructure, and the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China

• Main Authors: LI, Bingjing, MA, Lin
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2022
• Subjects: COVID-19; Spatial transmission; Migration; Transportation infrastructure; General equilibrium spatial model; Asian Studies; Behavioral Economics; Public Health; Regional Economics; Transportation
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2503; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soe_research/article/3502/viewcontent/li_ma_covid_china_final.pdf
• Institution: Singapore Management University

This paper evaluates the impacts of migration flows and transportation infrastructure on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China. Prefectures with larger bilateral migration flows and shorter travel distances with Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, experienced a wider spread of COVID-19. In addition, richer prefectures with higher incomes were better able to contain the virus at the early stages of community transmission. Using a spatial general equilibrium model, we show that around 28% of the infections outside Hubei province can be explained by the rapid development in transportation infrastructure and the liberalization of migration restrictions in the recent decade.