Economic voting behavior: The peak-end growth rule

Economic voting behavior: The peak-end growth rule

This paper introduces the peak-end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross-national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960-2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth ra...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: SHEN, Zekai, JIN, Yiyang, DONG, Yuanyuan, LIU, Yazhou
Format: text
Language:English
Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2024
Subjects:
cross-national
economic voting
election
myopic
peak-end rule
voter rationality
Political Economy
Social Influence and Political Communication
Online Access:https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2755
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Institution: Singapore Management University
Language: English
Description
Summary:This paper introduces the peak-end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross-national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960-2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less-educated voters rely more on the peak-end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.

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