Economic voting behavior: The peak-end growth rule

• Main Authors: SHEN, Zekai, JIN, Yiyang, DONG, Yuanyuan, LIU, Yazhou
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2024
• Subjects: cross-national; economic voting; election; myopic; peak-end rule; voter rationality; Political Economy; Social Influence and Political Communication
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/2755
• Institution: Singapore Management University

This paper introduces the peak-end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross-national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960-2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less-educated voters rely more on the peak-end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.