#TITLE_ALTERNATIVE#

• Main Author: MAULANA ARIJANTO (NIM : 14413023), ABDURRAHMAN
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/20675
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PLTM Pageruyung-1 project which is sponsored by PT Trans Migasindo is a public private partnership (PPP) that will be carried out under build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) scheme with a 15-year concession period. Currently the project is at the stage of seeking bank loans. However, with a feasibility study that was conducted in 2013 the project needs to recalculate the construction activity cost and operational profitability of the power plant. <br /> <br /> <br /> This research uses stochastic budget simulation by Elkjaer (2000) to estimate the cost of project activity. The methodology was chosen because the process is relatively fast but gives a fairly accurate estimate. Once the project cost value is calculated, project budgeting is used to calculate the annual funding requirements for construction, then the project cash flow based on project financing scheme is calculated. <br /> <br /> <br /> Based on the level 3 work breakdown structure (WBS) the project has 13 cost components. In addition, there are 4 generic risks that was identified from the risk checklist and brainstorming process. After that, three-point estimation using Delphi process was conducted to estimate the cost of all the components. Then, Monte Carlo simulation was conducted with a triangular distribution. Finally, using 95% confidence level the total activity is estimated to be Rp 69,736,380,410. Project budgeting results show that the EPC project value will be worth Rp 84,381,020,297 which consists of cost baseline, management reserve, and VAT which will be divided into three periods. The project will be funded with a proportion of 30% equity fund and 70% bank loan, where the loan will be paid in 10 years with a grace period of 3 years. According to the power purchase agreement (PPA) the power plant will have 15 years operational duration to generate cash flow. Using this project financing scheme, the project is financially feasible with a net present value of Rp 66,924,714,705, internal rate of return of 21,099% and payback period of 6,937 years. <br /> <br /> <br /> Although the project is financially feasible, there are several aspects that needs attention. It is necessary to improve the monitoring and evaluation capability of the power plant construction, and create refinancing plan to face uncertainty in the operational phase.