THE PROBABILISTIC METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE NUMBER OF GEOTHERMAL WELLS FOR POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT

• Main Author: Vernando Salim, Feri
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/39833
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The uncertainty and risk during presuming the number of geothermal wells (production, reinjection, and make-up well) in the feasibility study are caused by the lack of data about the wells and the field properties. The source of the uncertainty is the different characteristics in the wells, such as the enthalpy, mass flow rate, and other features. Therefore, the number of these geothermal wells should be estimated accurately to cover the uncertainty and reduce the risk. The method often used for calculating the number of wells is a deterministic approach that involves only a single value for every parameter. Since the result of this method is a single value, the uncertainties of the field parameters cannot be captured. Hence, the new way that applies the 2-level full factorial design of experiment approach is proposed to quantify the uncertainties. With the help of Minitab and the combination with Monte Carlo Simulation, the uncertainties will be covered, and the range of geothermal well number is the result. The proposed method has been successfully used to calculate the number of wells in the case study of Karaha-Talaga Bodas field. Based on the research, the most significant factors for determining the production, reinjection, and make-up well number in this field are enthalpy, total mass flow rate, and make-up well capacity. The minimum number of the production, reinjection, and make-up well should be drilled for developing 30 MW in this field are five, one, and four wells. Also, the learning curve is obtained in this study to predict the number of well required for various power plant capacity developed.