A SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING FOR ANALYZING GROWTH OF GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Wisnu Subroto, Raden
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/53242
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The Government of Indonesia has created a National Energy Policy through Presidential Regulation number 22, 2017, which set a target of New and Renewable Energy to contribute a minimum of 23% from Indonesia Energy Mix or equal to 45 GW in the year of 2025. From the target of 45 GW of new and renewable energy by 2025, 16% or 7.2 GW is targeted to be supplied from geothermal power plants. Although the country is endowed with huge geothermal potential where around 40% of the world’s known geothermal reserves (or equivalent to 23.9 GW potential) are located in Indonesia, as of 2019, the commercial utilization of geothermal potential reserve is only 2.1 GW, this means that only 8.9% geothermal potential being utilized into the power plant. The main business issue face by the government and geothermal industry player, which will be elaborated in this research, is the gap between the installed geothermal power plant capacities of 2.1 GW, compared with 2025’s installed target of 7.2 GW. This 5.1 GW difference or equal to 343% growth capacity must be achieved within a 6-year timeframe (2019 - 2025). This capacity gap issue and low utilization rate of the geothermal power plantss are occurred due to the complex challenges faced by the geothermal industry and the government. The challenges are mostly related to the development risk during exploration to convert geothermal resources into electricity production, where this stage has a high potential of failures and at the same time requires significant front-end investment. This up-front cost and risk is borne by the private geothermal developers. The private geothermal investors certainly require investment security through appropriate and supportive government regulation and economic tariffs to support project economics. The objective of this research is to analyze whether the gap between targeted growth and the current installed capacity of the geothermal power plant can be achieved or not. This research will analyze what are the variables that contributes to the capacity gap issue and also propose relevant scenarios that can be implemented to support targeted growth. The research will use a System Dynamic model approach. System Dynamic is modeling techniques use to frame the behaviors and correlation of sub-system and key variables associated with the development and growth of geothermal power plants in Indonesia. The conceptual framework to build this system dynamic model will be started from analyzing the Indonesian Geothermal industry, root-causes analysis of the gap using fishbone diagrams, identified all parameters and related variables and their correlation, and build a scenarios to support the targeted growth of geothermal power plants within a given timeframe for 6 years.