INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF TOBELO POWERPLANT 30 MW PROJECT IN HALMAHERA ISLAND SYSTEM

• Main Author: Aditya Primanto, Irfan
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/62702
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PT. PLN (Persero), as the state-owned company who responsible for electrification in Indonesia, has one major challenge to develop an electrical system in North Maluku. It lacks power capacity and reserve margin, causing system deficit and unreliable. Otherwise, the current generating cost from the existing Tobelo powerplant, which is part of Halmahera Island Interconnected System, has more than 12% higher generating cost than several powerplants owned by PLN. Furthermore, in 2023, several powerplants in Halmahera Island Interconnected System planned to stop operating due to the powerplant’s life and leased contract being over, which caused a system deficit. To serve demand growth, increase reliability, and produce the least generating cost in the new Tobelo powerplant, PLN has an investment plan in bigger capable power and more efficient powerplant than the existing Tobelo powerplant. This research aims to analyze the comparison between all alternatives that have been considered by PLN and determine the best alternative for the new Tobelo powerplant project in terms of the investment analysis. The methods used in this research are capital budgeting analysis and the levelized cost of electricity to determine the best investment alternative for PLN with several acceptance criteria. This research also performs risk analysis to determine the highly sensitive variables that influence the project’s feasibility. From all three alternatives that PLN has considered, Alternative 1 – build Gas Fired Engine Powerplant (30 MW) is the best investment. It resulting NPV with value 660,41 billion IDR; MIRR is 12,07%; Profitability Index is 1,71; Payback Period in 6,68 years. The generating cost (LCOE) is also the least. 10% less than the existing Tobelo powerplant. Based on the scenario analysis evaluation, Alternative 1 will not be financially feasible if the project runs in scenario 1 (using HSD 20 Years). It will be generated a negative NPV with the value of 195,45 Billion IDR. Exchange rate and LNG cost are the most sensitive variables in the sensitivity analysis. Monte-Carlo analysis obtained that the probability of negative NPV is 0%, the probability NPV is higher than 660,41 Billion IDR is 33,63%, the probability NPV is lower than 660,41 Billion IDR is 66,37% indicates that the Tobelo Project will be a successful investment project.