DEMAND FORECASTING AND INVENTORY MODEL ANALYSIS CASE STUDY : KUE KACANG ANNA”S KITCHEN

• Main Author: Decky Rizkiyanto, Mochammad
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/74867
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Anna's Kitchen is a culinary business that was established in 2018. They offer two products: tumpeng catering and kue kacang (peanut cookies). Tumpeng catering consists of cone-shaped rice with tempeh (a traditional round-shaped base made of woven bamboo) and various side dishes according to the customers' preferences. On the other hand, kue kacang is a cookie made from peanuts, processed into a delicious and easily consumable dry cake. This research focuses on Anna's Kitchen's product, specifically the kue kacang, where they have experienced an excessive demand that surpasses the available stock. As a result, Anna's Kitchen has had to reject or delay several orders to fulfill the demand, leading to a decrease in the maximum profit that Anna's Kitchen could have achieved. To address the stock issue at Anna's Kitchen, this study will utilize future demand forecasting and inventory management. The author will use demand data from Anna's Kitchen spanning from May 2020 to April 2023 to forecast the demand for the following six months and estimate the anticipated demand. The researcher will explore four forecasting theories: Simple Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt's Model, and Winter's Model, to determine the forecast with the lowest error values. Based on the research, Winter's Model yielded the lowest errors, with values of 23.32 MAD, 1071.85 MSD, and 61.71 percent MAPE. Following that, this study will implement inventory management using probability models to determine the required safety stock and reorder point to address the issue of stock depletion at Anna's Kitchen. In this case, the research revealed that the safety stock for Anna's Kitchen is 79, while the reorder point is 148. Once the safety stock and reorder point are determined, they are expected to be implemented in the business and help address the issue of stock depletion within the company.