BAWEAN ISLAND 5 MW POWERPLANT PROJECT INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
Bawean Island, located in East Java, has a population of 107,000 and is primarily inhabited by agriculture, fishing, and emigration. The island's natural resources, including beaches, lakes, waterfalls, mountains, and islands, have potential for tourism and economic development. The island i...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
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| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84720 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Bawean Island, located in East Java, has a population of 107,000 and is primarily inhabited by
agriculture, fishing, and emigration. The island's natural resources, including beaches, lakes,
waterfalls, mountains, and islands, have potential for tourism and economic development. The
island is home to an endemic species and a rare species called Rusa bawean, which is
endangered. To improve welfare, infrastructure like electricity is needed. Hence, PT PLN
(Persero), an Indonesian government-owned corporation tasked with advancing electrification
on Bawean Island, Gresik, East Java, intends to allocate funds towards the construction of a
new power generation facility. The objective of the study is to assess and compare various
investment options with respect to their PLN value in order to identify the most suitable
alternative for a new power plant project in Bawean. This will be achieved through an analysis
of capital budgeting and the levelized cost of electricity. The study performed a risk analysis to
identify the most critical variables that impact the feasibility of the project. Among the three
options assessed by PLN, Alternative 2 - build On Grid Solar PV Powerplant (5 MW) is deemed
the most optimal. The outcome of the analysis is a Net Present Value (NPV) of 51.70 billion
IDR, a Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) of 12.41%, a Profit Index of 1.63, and a
Payback Period of 8.60 years. The cost of generation, also known as the levelized cost of
electricity (LCOE), is 33% less than that of the current Bawean power plant. According to the
analysis evaluation scenario, Alternative 2 is not economically feasible when the project is
implemented using scenario 1-3, which involves using HSD to compensate for the reduced
capacity factor of PLTS. In sensitivity analysis, the exchange rate and cost of HSD are the
variables that have the highest level of sensitivity. The Monte Carlo analysis indicated a 0%
probability of a negative net present value (NPV), indicating that the Bawean Project is the
most favourable investment option. |
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