Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

• Main Authors: GROSSMA, Igor, et al.
• Format: text
• Language: English
• Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2022
• Subjects: Forecasting; Expert judgment; Well-being; Political polarization; Prejudice; Meta-science; Psychology
• Online Access: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cis_research/53; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1052&context=cis_research
• Institution: Singapore Management University

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, politic...