Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, politic...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: GROSSMA, Igor, HARTANTO, Andree, MAJEED, Nadyanna M., See comments for full list of authors, et al
Format: text
Language:English
Published: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2023
Subjects:
Forecasting
Expert judgment
Well-being
Political polarization
Prejudice
Meta-science
Experimental Analysis of Behavior
Social Psychology
Online Access:https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/3747
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soss_research/article/5005/viewcontent/Grossmann_et_al.preprint.pdf
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Institution: Singapore Management University
Language: English

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https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/3747
https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soss_research/article/5005/viewcontent/Grossmann_et_al.preprint.pdf

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