Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

• المؤلفون الرئيسيون: GROSSMA, Igor, HARTANTO, Andree, MAJEED, Nadyanna M., See comments for full list of authors, et al
• التنسيق: text
• اللغة: English
• منشور في: Institutional Knowledge at Singapore Management University 2023
• الموضوعات: Forecasting; Expert judgment; Well-being; Political polarization; Prejudice; Meta-science; Experimental Analysis of Behavior; Social Psychology
• الوصول للمادة أونلاين: https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soss_research/3747; https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/context/soss_research/article/5005/viewcontent/Grossmann_et_al.preprint.pdf
• المؤسسة: Singapore Management University

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, politic...